by Stan Heller, Consultant, VectorVest Canada
TO VIEW VIDEO REPORT, GO TO: http://www.screencast.com/t/0x3h0w4rDGPM
Well, another gloomy day in the Canadian market as a further slide in oil prices pressured the energy sector.
Crude oil continued to head lower after OPEC said that it expects demand for oil to fall in 2015 from current levels. Oversupply fears were also stoked by a report that U.S. oil inventories were higher than expected. With several popular petroleum stocks having lost half their value, it might be useful to revisit our founder’s essay from Friday, Dec. 5. Before commenting specifically on oil, he also commented, “The time for caution and protecting profits has arrived.”
Dr. DiLiddo’s Essay Friday, Dec 5:
“Just take a look at a Business Sector Graph of the Petroleum Sector. The average price of the Industries in this important sector peaked on July 1, 2014 at $32.89 per share. It closed at $23.29 per share today. This sector had an RT ranking of 4 on July 1, 2014. It hit a low of 41 on November 25, 2014 and remains there today. (Canada: 22nd on July 2 and dead last at 40th today) I hear a lot of talk about buying petroleum stocks at current bargain prices, but I wouldn’t touch them until the Business Sector RT Ranking starts moving higher. Just be patient, Graphs Don’t Lie.”
So, with the MTI (Market Timing Indicator) in Canada falling below 0.60, it means we are at a level that historically signals the market is nearing a bottom. It can go lower and stay at this level for awhile, but historically when the MTI finally does start to rise from these low levels, it’s one of the safest times to buy for growth over the long term. (see chart below). For when to buy again, look for the guidance to prudent investors in the nightly Views tab and on the home page. Generally we’ll want to see at least a Primary Wave Up, and more conservative investors will wait for at least a green light in the Color Guard price column. Please keep in mind that we do not offer specific investment advice. Each individual investor is responsible for their own research and investments according to their own risk tolerance and investment goals.
For a full December 10 Colour Guard Report, please click on the link below to listen to the video:
http://www.screencast.com/t/0x3h0w4rDGPM
Your comments about the Wednesday Canada Colour Guard Report and ideas for improvements if we decide to continue with it on a weekly basis will be greatly appreciated.
I like the format, good info.
I have just one issue, are you able to turn your INPUT volume up some, I had to turn my speakers up to the limit to hear you properly.
As always the best teacher in the group we listen to
Thank you
Emanuel
Thanks Emanuel. I noticed my volume was low on this one, so I’ll look after for the next one.
Is anyone else having problems with the V V U.S. database this morning ?
Hi Barry, I was able to log in okay this morning. You may wish to call Support if you’re still having difficulty. 1-888-658-7638.
Thanks Stan,
I did email them – and the bottom line is that V V is now working properly again
Thanks for the great presentation Stan!
The most important concept I grasped in 2014 is the importance of the market trend and that is what the Colour Guard Report is all about. They say that 75% of stocks will rise in a rising market and conversely 75% will fall in a falling market.
Warm Regards, Jake
Thanks for your comments Jake. There seems to be sufficient interest in a weekly video, so I will definitely try another one next Wednesday.
HI Stan
Great presentation and really appreciated. Looking forward to all your presentations. You do fantastic work for all of us…but then that is why VV pays you the “big bucks”!
gEOFF
Thanks Geoff. You didn’t finish the but…but I suspect it might be to keep the report quite a bit shorter. That was my intention, but will have to do a bit more practice to get it right for next week. I think it was Mark Twain who said something like, “If I had more time I would have written a shorter letter.”
Hi Stan
No I wasn’t asking for a shorter letter, in fact the length is just fine. What I did say was that you do good work and work hard for us but then that is why VV pays you the “big bucks” LOL
Geoff
LOL….that’s great. Thank you. Show’s what can happen when you try to read a person’s mind eh?
Hi Stan:
Is there supposed to be a video? I can’t seem to get it. I did try the http://www.screencast.com that you mentioned in your e-mail but couldn’t get a video.
Florence
Hi Florence. To get the video, just left click on the link at the top of the page in the Blog. Note: There seems to be a lot of people viewing the video today, so it may take up to 3-5 for the video to load. Please let me know if you have problems. Thanks for your interest Florence.
Thanks Stan. I finally saw the link in the blog. I was trying to put it in from the e-mail and must have missed a letter or number.
Florence
Glad you found it. I hope you enjoy it.
Thanks Stan. Great presentation. The video idea solves the time zone difference for me, so I appreciate that.
Question; Can anybody explain why the closed end funds that pay dividends all show a DS, dividend safety of 58?
I find this interesting as many closed funds pay dividends well above the average div of the stocks they hold. Example PIC.A holds bank stocks which pay 3%, and yet the closed end fund pays 10%. I understand that they sell covered calls, and that the closed end funds may trade below the asset value of their holdings, however it still seems that the safety of these dividends should show well below 58. Also, a strange coincidence that they are all at 58. Please explain
Thanks Dave. I’ll ask our database team about the closed end funds and Dividend Safety values. Good observation.
Stan, I have no idea how you manage to do all that you do with and for VectorVest – let alone have ” a life” outside of the stock market – but we are all glad that you do manage it somehow – You must put in at least 12 hours a day on all this and still manage to return everyone’s emails and now blog postings and ………
I get worn out just thinking about all that you must be doing
Cheers and thanks for it all !
Barry
LOL….Thanks for your kind words Barry. I’m really enjoying the communication opportunities the Blog is presenting.
Thanks Stan for this week webcast, the format is great, lots of great information, hopefully it lowered some of the anxiety level for some subscribers knowing that the MTI is flashing bottoming signals, hope we get there SOON !! .
I just wonder how you manage all this, thanks you and to everyone at VectorVest for keeping me on the right side of the market.
Neal
Thanks for your comments Neal. Looking forward to trying another CA Colour Guard next Wednesday. Hopefully the market will cooperate. Comparing Friday’s MTI at .52 with the Oct 15 MTI of .49, it’s almost the same type of double bottom we saw in April and June 2013. We certainly saw a nice move up from there. You never know for sure, but history tends to repeat.
I watched your presentation with a lot of interest; but, don’t we in US already have the real industry groups and thus would not have to create them via a proxy? It is populated with lots of ETFs in addition to VVC but I don’t know that affects much. Certainly the rest of your presentation is very appropriate to what I should be doing.
The biggest problem is knowing when to use which strategy. So many strategies are presented that many of us have a problem knowing what to do when. I liked this weeks VV SOW but that would indicate more of a short term trading approach as the bottom strategies keep changing. With your teaching style, it would be very helpful, to lots of us, to hear you give a short presentation on strategies vs market conditions or market cycle. I think many of us have to simplify things or we continue to do paralysis by analyse or however the saying goes. It feels that this has be major part of our overall plan.
Thank you for a wonderful contribution to VectorVest
Guy
Hi Guy, thanks for your comments and suggestion, something I might work on in future. Today I’ve been working on a search that allows us to find stocks that meet Jerry’s Explosive Industry Group Rotation criteria automatically. Seems to work pretty well. Just need to do the backtesting before tomorrow’s SOTW Q&A webinar.